PriceSpy - Black Friday Report 2022 - Part Two

What to expect from Black Friday

Introduction

Part two of The Black Friday Report will focus on what people can expect from the upcoming Black Friday and Black Week sales:

• What kind of discounts do Kiwis expect vs the reality
• How discounts may be different this year in light of the cost of living crisis
• The trustworthiness of sales - fake sales and price hikes happen!
• Why Black Friday sales are happening earlier and earlier
• What deals are good Black Friday deals

With shoppers also facing a cost of living crisis, at the end of this Report, PriceSpy will share its top tips on how shoppers can navigate the busy Black Friday season to secure genuine deals and discounts.

And if you haven’t yet read part one of the Black Friday Report, click here.

The discounts

Expect a lot of discounts

According to PriceSpy’s comprehensive data from Black Friday last year, expect lots of products to be discounted this year:

• Almost two-fifths (38 per cent) of all products listed on the price and product comparison site dropped in price on Black Friday last year.
• And of the items that were discounted, a fifth (19 per cent) received a price drop of 10 per cent or more.
• What's more, of the items that dropped in price by 10 per cent or more, the average price change was -21 per cent.

Expectations vs reality

Interestingly, according to PriceSpy’s recently commissioned survey results*, Kiwis may however have higher expectations when it comes to how much they expect to save from sale events, like Black Friday and Black Week:

• 63 per cent of the respondents say they expect to save up to 50 per cent on sales days like Black Friday and Black Week.
• And the average amount survey respondents expect to save on sales days like Black Friday and Black Week is 41 per cent off.

Compared to PriceSpy’s Price Index data, consumer expectations are much higher compared to the average price drops offered.

And in a cost of living crisis, what discounts can consumers expect?

With many retailers impacted by the cost of living, it’s going to be interesting to see how much of a discount businesses can afford to offer to shoppers this Black Friday season.

And with price points across many goods found to have risen this last year, how will the price of the item sold on Black Friday compare to other Black Fridays?

• Will the savings offered this Black Friday be better than in previous years?
• Or, will the savings offered this Black Friday be worse than in previous years?

Essentially, whatever savings are offered at an otherwise more expensive time are good, so long as the savings are genuine…

Are the deals trustworthy?

Beware of fake sales

Unfortunately, for the last couple of years, PriceSpy’s comprehensive pricing data continues to reveal how Black Friday is plagued by fake sales***:

• On Black Friday 2021, one in 10 products (11 per cent) listed on PriceSpy were found to have increased in price between 1 October and the Sunday before Black Friday, to then get ‘reduced’ on Black Friday

• And on Black Friday 2020, almost one in 10 products (8.9 per cent) listed on PriceSpy increased in price between 1 October and the Sunday before Black Friday, to then get ‘reduced’ on Black Friday.

***A 'fake sale' is when a retailer claims a discount to be bigger than it is, by comparing the discounted price to a favourable moment in time.  

Even though many retailers may be doing it tough at the moment with the cost-of-living crisis impacting them as a business, the trend of ‘fake sales’ is something PriceSpy has unfortunately seen for many years.

With cost increases impacting everyone at the moment, PriceSpy encourages retailers to ensure all Black Friday sales are honest, authentic and real this year.

And watch out for price hikes

It’s easy for shoppers to get carried away and think everything is discounted across big sale events. But, in actual fact:

• Almost a fifth of all products (19 per cent) listed on PriceSpy on Black Friday last year received a price hike.

But even more shocking - PriceSpy’s historical data reveals the number of Black Friday price hikes it is seeing is rising year-on-year, up almost a tenth (nine per cent) compared to 2019.

Three in five Kiwis don’t trust Black Friday discounts

With an estimated half of Kiwis saying they will shop this Black Friday*, it’s evident that popularity for the event is still sky-high.

But it seems New Zealanders may have had enough of the marketing bluff surrounding the sale event:

• According to PriceSpy’s recently commissioned survey results*, three in five Kiwis say they have little trust in the discounts being offered.

And given that one in ten products on Black Friday was found to offer a fake sale last year (2021), it’s no wonder the trust factor is dropping.

Black Friday sales are happening earlier

As explained in part one of The Black Friday Report, over the last few years Black Friday has grown in popularity and size and is much larger than a standalone sale day.

Following global trends, Black Friday in New Zealand is becoming Black Week.

And from PriceSpy’s Price Index** information, retailers aren’t stopping at Black Week – with many appearing to offer even earlier discounts in a bid to extend the buying season.

• According to PriceSpy’s Price Index, a tool that tracks daily indexed price changes across the most-popular products listed on the price and product comparison site, last year, the indexed price started to fall from around 9 November (a couple of days before Singles’ Day, which takes place on 11:11 and is cited as the world’s biggest sale event).
• A few days after Black Friday however, the indexed price quickly increased again.

By retailers extending the sale season and running Black Friday discounts over a longer period of time, it helps them:

• Be more strategic with stock.  For example, they can sell through more of their inventory earlier in the year and offer steeper price drops should they need to before the year ends and shopping interest drops.
• Running sales over a longer time frame also allows more shoppers to get involved. 
• At the same time, it provides consumers with multiple opportunities to buy products (that they may otherwise not purchase altogether).
• And with many consumers facing the cost of living crisis, this year, shoppers may have less money to spend. In advertising to shoppers and running sales earlier in the month of November, retailers are subconsciously getting into people’s minds so that their store remains front-of-mind for when people choose to buy.

But, there are some great deals out there!

Black Friday is still the cheapest time to buy ahead of Christmas!

According to PriceSpy’s Price Index**, Black Friday is the cheapest day of the year to buy ahead of Christmas.

• On Black Friday last year (2021), compared to a normal shopping day (1 November 2021), PriceSpy’s Price Index fell -5.62 per cent.

Whilst this figure doesn’t sound high, when you take into consideration how many thousands of products PriceSpy lists on its site (not to mention how many price changes occur each day), this is a significant number.

So, for anyone looking to save some money on their Christmas shopping bills, Black Friday could deliver some big savings!

Black Friday deals appear to be improving…

Interestingly, PriceSpy’s research also found that the indexed price change on Black Friday appears to be improving, indicating that the deals being offered by retailers are getting better!

And the average price drop for the products that were found to be discounted by 10 per cent or more on PriceSpy on Black Friday was found to be increasing year-on-year, once again suggesting that the deals are improving!

What to buy?

Popular products

Traditionally, tech-related products such as mobile phones, game consoles and other gadgets are synonymous with Black Friday.

And according to PriceSpy’s popularity data, they still are, with the most popular shopping categories last year being mobile phones, headphones and TVs.

But popular doesn’t always deliver the biggest discount

Even though PriceSpy’s popularity insights revealed the shopping category of ‘mobile phones’ generated the biggest purchase interest on Black Friday last year, consumers should be wary that popular doesn’t always deliver the biggest discount.

• According to PriceSpy’s price index data, on Black Friday last year, the indexed price change for mobile phones dropped -4.32 per cent. 
• In comparison to other categories, the indexed price change for games & consoles was much larger, at -10.04 per cent.
• And for wider shopping categories, such as home & garden, beauty & health and fashion & accessories, the indexed price drop was still more significant.

What shopping categories offer the best discounts?

For those looking for a bit more inspiration as to what to buy this Black Friday season, further pricing research suggests the biggest discounts last year came from PlayStation 4 games (offering an average price drop of -34 per cent), electric toothbrushes (offering an average price drop of -33 per cent) and fitness watches (offering an average price drop of 31 per cent).

This PriceSpy research compares prices on 26 November 2021 (Black Friday) to a normal shopping day (1 November 2021).

To find the best Black Friday discounts, PriceSpy encourages shoppers to keep a close eye on its Black Friday deals page, as this offers live information to share the biggest discounts and where to buy.

But remember, even if a product is heavily discounted, shoppers should always check the price history of a product before they buy to make sure the deal is worthwhile. And this is especially true at the moment when the price points of many items have increased due to the cost of living crisis.

Key takeaways

• Across part two of The Black Report, PriceSpy’s comprehensive data reveals that a lot of discounts will be offered across the Black Friday season – both on the day and in the weeks leading into Black Friday.

• Even though consumers may have higher expectations as to what kind of discounts are offered on Black Friday, average pricing research from PriceSpy shows sometimes, the discounts can exceed expectations.

• But with continued evidence of fake sales and price hikes plaguing sales events, there is a clear distrust amongst consumers about the Black Friday deals offered.

• And with shoppers facing a cost of living crisis, it’s paramount that retailers are transparent and authentic about the deals they offer.

With shoppers facing a cost-of-living crisis this year, PriceSpy’s research highlights why consumers need to take care when looking to purchase over sale events, like Black Friday and Black Week, as clearly, not all deals can be trusted!

Particularly, when the price across many goods is increasing, now more than ever, it's extremely important to carry out essential price research.

PriceSpy's top shopping tips on how to win at sale shopping

To help shoppers prepare for this year’s sale season, PriceSpy has the following top tips.

1. Preparation is key

The best chance of finding a good bargain comes from preparation. If shoppers know in advance what they are interested in and have a rough idea of the price, they’re less likely to get carried away by the hustle and bustle of a sale. Create a wish list of products and set up a price alert on PriceSpy, to help keep you updated automatically if a price suddenly drops.

2. Check out the competition

Before you buy, take time to check if an offer is as good as it sounds by sussing out the competition. Is the same TV set available at an even better price elsewhere?

Price points can vary massively depending on where you buy – by checking out prices from shop to shop, you can potentially save thousands!

3. Check the price history

As well as looking for the best price from competitor shops, be sure to look at a product’s price history. 

This vital piece of research is key in helping shoppers make informed purchase decisions, as they can see if the price being offered is genuine.

4. See through the marketing bluff and do your own independent research

Even if a product you are looking to buy is being advertised with a price drop, don't take the retailer's word for it. Always conduct your own independent research using an impartial price comparison site or app, like PriceSpy.

And if the deal isn't as good as it should be, be prepared to walk away.

5. Keep a cool head and don’t panic buy

Whilst it’s very easy to get caught up in the hype surrounding Black Friday, shoppers need to be aware that fake sales and price hikes do exist! If you see a good deal, keep your cool, do your research – and don’t panic buy!

The PriceSpy consumer omnibus survey

* The PriceSpy consumer omnibus survey in 2022 was conducted by 3Gem, in October 2022, on 500 New Zealand respondents.

* The PriceSpy consumer omnibus survey in 2021 was conducted by 3Gem, in October 2021, on 500 New Zealand respondents.

* The PriceSpy consumer omnibus survey in 2020 was conducted by 3Gem, in October 2020, on 500 New Zealand respondents.

* The PriceSpy consumer omnibus survey in 2019 was conducted by Savanta, in October 2019, on 506 New Zealand respondents. * The PriceSpy consumer omnibus survey in 2018 was conducted by VIGA (now Savanta), on 30 October 2018, on 527 New Zealand respondents.

** PriceSpy’s Price Index is a daily updated chain index that tracks price changes across all categories, brands and markets over time. Products are weighted by popularity, determined by the number of clicks-outs received and the number of stores offering the product. The index works much like a stock index, where daily price changes are used to calculate the accumulated index, and where company size corresponds to product popularity. Old products will gracefully disappear and new products enter the index. The index shows the relative price change of already existing products from the day before.